It's Immigration, Stupid
New America Media, Commentary, Henry Fernandez, Posted: Sep 21, 2008
Editor's Note: The dueling Obama and McCain ads in Spanish-language media show that the parties realize the election might just be won or lost on the issue of immigration - but not in the way they had imagined. NAM contributor Henry Fernandez has this analysis. IMMIGRATION MATTERS regularly features the voices and opinions of immigrant rights groups and advocates.
Two weeks ago, television talking heads got all excited about hockey moms because of Sarah Palin. But both Obama and McCain are now spending big money to buy ads in Spanish to win folks who are much more likely to be soccer or baseball moms and dads – Latino voters in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Why are they doing this?
Increasingly the go to source for election activists is the amazing web site Fivethirtyeight.com. 538 updates daily using complex math combined with every poll done anywhere the previous day. 538 figures out in almost real time what states need to be won by each side and whether investments of time and money can turn the outcome of the race.
Here’s how 538 lists the top 6 states in terms of return on investment:
1. Colorado
2. Nevada
3. New Hampshire
4. Virginia
5. Ohio
6. New Mexico
Three of those states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico) have Latino voting blocks more than large enough to decide the outcome. For both campaigns, this race is coming down to the ability to inspire Latino voters.
The campaigns have different goals and different dilemmas. McCain wants to remind Latino voters of the McCain-Kennedy bill for comprehensive immigration reform. His dilemmas are that his party caused the collapse of this bill and that right wing talk radio bashes Latinos and immigrants daily. Obama’s dilemma is that McCain does have a good history on immigration reform. Obama’s opportunity is that many conservative activists behind McCain salivate at the chance to belittle Latinos.
This week both campaigns put up new Spanish language ads. McCain’s makes the laughable claim that Obama sank immigration reform, despite the facts that Obama voted for it and that McCain has previously thanked him for doing so. Obama’s ties McCain to Rush Limbaugh who has called Mexicans “stupid and unskilled,” a belief McCain does not share.
But Obama’s ad also makes the point that McCain and the Republicans have two faces (in fact the ad is named “Dos Caras”) and on this the ad is on solid ground. McCain has, with Spanish language ads, at the National Council of La Raza and in closed to the press meetings, reminded Latinos of his efforts. But, he has also said publicly that he would no longer vote for his own comprehensive immigration bill.
McCain quite possibly would not be the nominee without having won the Republican primary in Florida. Exit polls there show that he did not win the white vote but did overwhelmingly win the Latino vote (both Cuban and non-Cuban). This is attributable at least in part to the fact that he has been an ally on immigration while Mitt Romney was looking under every rock to find a nativist vote. (Odd since Romney’s family immigrated from Mexico– but that’s another story.)
Now it looks like neither Obama nor McCain can win the White House without the Latino vote. Obama needs to dominate. McCain needs to get numbers more like the reputed 40% that Bush did. Obama is having more success in reaching his goal with polls showing McCain getting clobbered among Latinos in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.
Hampered by the perception that he lets the reactionary anti-immigrant parts of the conservative base drive the discussion, McCain is hard pressed to make a convincing argument that any Republican administration is good for Latinos. Equally important, polling consistently shows that Latinos trust the Democrats more on the economy which is Latinos’ number one issue (and just about everyone else’s as well).
A clear difference between the two campaigns is emerging as McCain’s campaign has become dominated by Republican operatives which the “Dos Caras” theme captures well. As one example, the pro-immigrant blogosphere has grown to be extremely active over the last two years, creating the website The Sanctuary as a home base. The Sanctuary asked both campaigns to answer very direct questions about immigration reform.
The Obama campaign responded in a timely fashion with answers which while broadly supportive of immigrants will not appease everyone at the site. But after repeated requests, and even a CNN story about McCain’s lack of a response, the McCain campaign has refused to respond. This is a big deal for many increasingly influential Latino and pro-immigrant bloggers – not just disagreement but disrespect.
Cable news shows have been slow to recognize this change in the presidential race. Many still worry themselves silly every night about women and blue collar voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio (who are no doubt still important).
Asked a year ago, most television pundits would have said that being pro-immigrant or too close to the Latino community was a deadly position for anyone who wanted to be President. Now, both campaigns seem to believe this election will be won or lost on the immigration issue – just not how the talking heads thought.
Related Articles:
McCain Ad Lies About Obama's Record on Immigration Reform
McCain and Obama Trade Inaccuracies in Spanish-Language Ads
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User Comments
rapier on Sep 22, 2008 at 19:05:20 said:
To the extent Democratic political victories are based upon capturing the non Anglo vote is the extent to which a significant portion of Anglos don't see Democratic wins as even legit.
The anger and resentment will only rise as the non Anglo portion of the population rises. I make the case, being a pessimist, that when the GOP is simply unable to carry national elections is the time when the American democratic experiment comes to an end.
MdeG on Sep 22, 2008 at 16:54:15 said:
I see a lot of assumptions being made here. Latinos aren't a homogeneous group. Not everyone who isn't a citizen is undocumented -- the process of becoming a citizen takes a good many years, during which one has to pay taxes but has no right to gov't benefits. People in this position are not blameworthy.
It's ridiculous to claim that people of a given ethnicity "only think about their own kind." That's been said before about a number of groups -- wasn't true then, isn't true now of Latinos.
What is probably close to true is that most immigrant families, of whatever nationality, are of mixed status. Even if everyone's legal, it tends to work out that way. This has something to do with the Fibber McGee's closet of horrors we call an immigration system -- it's powerfully in need of reform. Anyone who's an immigrant or related to immigrants has had a close-up view of that particular horror show, and it does tend to influence the way you think.
I call this process enlightenment, personally.
anna on Sep 21, 2008 at 18:32:23 said:
the fact is that the US has to fix the immigration reform to bring itself up from the bottom it happend to be in for the past couple of years!!! every thinking economist would agree with that. so our elected representatives start working for our best interests!!!!!!
MaryJ on Sep 21, 2008 at 12:30:55 said:
crash: Subprime housing loans to unqualified illegal immigrants are a big reason why our financial system just got wiped out last week. Looks like you are the one who is uneducated. Also, poor immigrants. whether legal or illegal, pay little in taxes. That's why California is broke -- poor, non-taxpaying immigrants drove out middle-class tax-paying natives. Only the super-rich and the super-poor are left now, just like in Mexico and other Third World banana republics.
crash on Sep 21, 2008 at 11:09:52 said:
I am glad the immigration issue is getting attention. Anyone with a brain knows that fixing this drives tax revenue and is good for the U.S.. Immigrants also serve as the engine for the economy. They come in, buy low end housing, the people in those houses then move up and the people in those houses move up. So to you complaining about not being patriotic you are sadly uneducated.
crash on Sep 21, 2008 at 09:43:27 said:
I am glad the immigration issue is getting attention. Anyone with a brain knows that fixing this drives tax revenue and is good for the U.S.. Immigrants also serve as the engine for the economy. They come in, buy low end housing, the people in those houses then move up and the people in those houses move up. So to you complaining about not being patriotic you are sadly uneducated.
MaryJ on Sep 21, 2008 at 08:34:49 said:
Why do "American" Latinos only seem to care about their own kind, and not about the country as a whole? Mass Third World immigration is NOT good for the US -- look at the financial mess in California. Why do "American" Latinos seem to have more loyalty to a stranger from Mexico or El Salvador than they do to their own countrymen here in the US? Racist much?
Len on Sep 21, 2008 at 08:02:03 said:
Rarely have I seen such bias in a hard-news article. McCain's ad is described as 'laughable'; not exactly a term commonly heard when referring to news stories. No positive is described. Obama's ad is briefly seen for what it is with the mildest possible language, but Limbaugh's comments are taken out-of-context, followed by a paragraph in defense of the ad. Comments Limbaugh made referring to Mexican elitist attitudes in Mexico regarding the poor and immigrants from South America are falsely said to be something else entirely. 'Immigrants' and 'Latinos' are falsely presented as a block that right-wingers bash, without making the distinction between illegal and legal immigrants, and the fact that virtually no one of consequence on the right belittles Latinos in any sort of generic fashion. This story is simply a campaign ad for Democrats.
Vince Calhoun, Sr. on Sep 21, 2008 at 07:48:49 said:
The Latino vote is a complete mess. in the one hand you have the legal citizen component, and in the other, the monster of the illegal alien. The Pew Hispanic Center reports only 45% of resident Hispanics are actually genuine citizens. The rest are illegal aliens who have no business here, let alone voting!
Yet, and still, the sympathies of the Hispanic are those of aid to their people without regard for their individual status because non-citizens represent extended family in most instances.
The basic real truth of this election is simply a matter of integrity, character and honesty. One has only to look at what dishonest people in government positions have done to destroy a great nation through lack of enforcement of our laws.
The McCain-Palin ticket may be our last best hope to clean up government from regulatory neglect, and to uphold the laws which made us great in the first place.
It may well be collectively we have become so corrupt and deluded, we have reached a point of no return.
If enough people buy into the lies and propaganda of the Obama ticket, we are sunk, and come out as a defenseless socialist country having lost forever what cost so many lives to build.
The good thing is the choice will be that of people to a samll degree. They will make the bed. We all have to lay in it.
Sarah Palin scares people because of her truthfulness, just as John McCain does. A lot of people don\\\'t want to accept truth.
These are the ones who want a socialist country with no personal responsibility.
Maintenance of freedom requires sacrifice and honesty, a characteristic of those who desire the American dream, and are willing to sacrifice and serve to attain it.argoi
Latino Voter on Sep 21, 2008 at 07:39:16 said:
McCain will never win the Latino votes, What he did was in the PAST.
-->Today he clearly said that he would not sign his own bill, What dose that say?
What matters is now what he is doing about it? NOTHING. Sad to see how one changes their inner core set of beliefs to appease their party.